Here are my predictions for the 85th Academy Award nominations, announced in the United States this coming Thursday (likely around Midnight that evening here).
Note: I have not yet seen some of the films in contention, so I am relying on 'informed speculation' to come up with these picks.
Best Picture
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
The Master
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Possible Spoilers:
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Amour
Skyfall
I think there are now seven locks for Best Picture following the Golden Globe/PGA/WGA momentum Django Unchained is riding. The top six I have listed have been amongst the conversations for several months now. Argo was the favourite for a while. Then Les Miserables. Then Zero Dark Thirty. I think Lincoln is the favourite again. Anyway, what interests me at the moment is the bottom of the list and because The Master is an incredible film and because it is set to feature prominently in other categories, I think it is difficult to overlook for a Best Picture nomination. I have it in at 8, an opinion not shared by many others. If the list stretches to 9 or 10, then I think any of Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moonrise Kingdom, Amour and Skyfall will slot in. I'd like to think Moonrise Kingdom and Amour. The former is amongst Wes Anderson's best work, and none of his films have never been nominated for Best Pic, and it would be great to see a foreign language film nominated once again. Amour is also looking likely to feature amongst multiple categories (Best Actress, Screenplay, Foreign Language Film). Beasts and Skyfall deserve technical nominations (score and cinematography respectively) but they're just not good enough overall, for me, to have them on the ballot.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Ben Affleck - Argo
Ang Li - Life of Pi
Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained
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David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
Michael Haneke - Amour
Tom Hooper - Les Miserables
A lottery, really. I don't know. My gut tells me that QT will miss out (and join PTA, Russell and Haneke on the sidelines) and that Tom Hooper will be nominated. I refuse to believe that is possible. Hooper makes some bold decisions in Les Miserables - shooting the singing live - but his casting is inconsistent, his camera work is disastrous at times and he also fails to capture the scope of the city his story is set in. I'm leaving him out, and because Django has momentum, I think QT will slot in. Depending on how much they love Silver Linings (likely to receive at least four nominations) and The Master (I am predicting seven), then Russell and PTA could feature too. I doubt it, though.
Best Actor
Daniel Day Lewis - Lincoln
Denzel Washington - Flight
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
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Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Jean-Louis Trintignant - Amour
I think DDL, Washington, Jackman and Hawkes are locked in, and it will come down to Phoenix vs. Cooper. Personally, I wouldn't have Jackman there (and I haven't seen DDL, Washington or Cooper at work yet) but it is his story that keeps the film engaging, so I respect his work. The best performance I have seen here is Phoenix's in The Master but because of some recent comments he made about the Oscars and his general unpopularity following I'm Still Here it looks like he'll miss out. I would be overjoyed if he made the cut, but it looks to be at the expense of Bradley Cooper, who I am glad to see feature. I never would have guessed years back he'd be a potentially Academy Award-nominated actor.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Naomi Watts - The Impossible
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Helen Mirren - Hitchcock
Mary Elizabeth Winstead - Smashed
Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Rachel Weisz - The Deep Blue Sea
Pretty confident these will be the five nominees. It will be between Lawrence and Chastain (how attractive is this category, seriously) but I sincerely hope Riva makes the cut for her work in Amour. Amazing performance. She has won a heap of critics awards, so I think she will overcome the SAG snub and make it in over Helen Mirren. Watts has been amongst the talk a lot recently, and the only other outside chances that could foil her and Riva are Wallis and Weisz.
Best Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike
Alan Arkin - Argo
Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
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Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Javier Bardem - Skyfall
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
Samuel L. Jackson - Django Unchained
Ezra Miller - The Perks of Being A Wallflower
Tough category to predict. Any of the ten I have mentioned here could be nominated. I believe Waltz is more of a co-lead than a supporting, and it is possible that the Django trio could cancel one another out. Still, I have heard such great things about Leo's performance that I envision seeing him there. Jones, Hoffman and Arkin are locks (the latter was great, but I don't think he's worthy of a nomination) and I am rounding it out with Matthew McConaughey for Magic Mike. He has had a terrific year (fantastic in Killer Joe and Bernie also) and I'd like to see him recognised. Then there's De Niro, who more knowledgeable people than myself predict to be a lock.
Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Sally Field - Lincoln
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Amy Adams - The Master
Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy
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Ann Dowd - Compliance
Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Not much to say here. I find it hard to believe Maggie Smith will be nominated, and though I haven't seen Field or Kidman there is enough buzz to suggest they will be recongised. I wonder whether the less-than-positive reaction to The Paperboy will hurt Kidman's chances. It doesn't matter, Hathaway will win this.
Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal - Zero Dark Thirty
Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained
Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
Michael Haneke - Amour
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola - Moonrise Kingdom
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Rian Johnson - Looper
John Gatins - Flight
If Moonrise Kingdom and Amour receive a Best Pic nominations you can bet Anderson/ Coppola and Haneke will be honoured here. If not, they might be replaced by Rian Johnson. I think Boal, Tarantino and PTA are locks, but the final two categories will be challenges by the aforementioned.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Tony Kushner - Lincoln
Chris Terrio - Argo
David O. Russell - Silver Lining Playbook
David Magee - Life of Pi
Stephen Chbosky - The Perks of Being A Wallflower
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Ben Lewin - The Sessions
William Nicholson - Les Miserables
The top four are locks. The fifth spot...well it will likely be Les Mis, but I am holding hope for Perks to pick up a single nomination. Chbosky did such a great job with that film.
Best Foreign Language Film
Amour
The Intouchables
A Royal Affair
Beyond the Hills
Kon-Tiki
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No
Sister
War Witch
No certainly whatsoever. I know that Amour and The Intouchables will be there.
Best Documentary Feature
Searching For Sugar Man
The Imposter
The Gatekeepers
How To Survive A Plague
The Invisible War
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The House I Live In
Chasing Ice
This is Not A Film
The same. Searching For Sugar Man and The Imposter (I hope!) will be there.
Animated Feature
From Up On Poppy Hill
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Brave
Wreck-It Ralph
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Le Tableau
Rise of the Guardians
Here's another of my bold predictions. I loved From Up On Poppy Hill, and I feel like it is better than all of the other nominees and deserves a nomination. I also enjoyed Frankenweenie and Brave, so I hope they are amongst it. Wreck-It Ralph (the likely winner) was average. I wouldn't nominate it.
Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins - Skyfall
Mihai Malaimare Jr. - The Master
Claudio Miranda - Life of Pi
Grieg Fraser - Zero Dark Thirty
Robert Richardson - Django Unchained
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Janusz Kaminski - Lincoln
Seamus McGarvey - Anna Karenina
Wally Pfister - The Dark Knight Rises
Best Editing
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
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Django Unchained
The Master
Best Original Score
Lincoln
Anna Karenina
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Master
Zero Dark Thirty
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Argo
Life of Pi
The Dark Knight Rises
Best Art Direction
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Django Unchained
Best Visual Effects
Life of Pi
Cloud Atlas
The Avengers
Prometheus
The Dark Knight Rises
Best Make-up/Hairstyling
Les Miserables
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln
I have left out the categories of Best Original Song, Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing because I am not informed enough about those categories and it would be blind guessing.
So, with the exception of those categories, here's how my Best Picture nominees stand:
Lincoln is down for 11, The Master 7, Zero Dark Thirty 7, Life of Pi 7, Les Miserables 6, Django Unchained 6, Argo 5 and Silver Linings Playbook 5.
What are your thoughts? I am prepared for a heap of feedback regarding The Master.
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