The 85th Academy Awards are held on February 25 (Australian time).
Could Win: Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Here's how I'd rank the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning:
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Following the nominations Argo fell from equal favouritism with Lincoln to be beneath Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi and even Amour, but in the ensuing weeks - with wins at the Golden Globes, SAG, PGA, DGA and BAFTA - it has returned to heavy favouritism. But will this translate into a win, despite the fact that Affleck didn't receive a nomination? It is looking very likely. Looking through each of Argo's other nominations, I'm not sure it is going to win any of them. It 'could' take out Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Film Editing (well, it's got this one) and Adapted Screenplay, and if it did I can see justification in the Best Picture win. I can also see Lincoln (Adapted, Supporting Actor, Actor and Director), Silver Linings Playbook (Adapted, Supporting Actor, Actress and Director), Life of Pi (Visual Effects, Cinematography, Score and Director) and Zero Dark Thirty (Editing, Original and Actress) making claims for Best Picture. I'm pretty sure Argo will take it out - I have come to learn how this race works - and though I now favour others, that's fine with me.
Head over to Graffiti With Punctuation for the rest of my predictions.