Sunday, January 15, 2012

Awards Watch: Golden Globe Predictions


With the Golden Globe ceremony set to take place this week sometime, and with us Oscar nuts wondering what will get recognised so that things are made all the more clearer, I thought I would run through the categories and give my predictions - and the Oscar chances of some of the films nominated here.


Best Motion Picture – Drama

The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
War Horse

Predicted Winner: Hugo
Alternative Choice: The Descendants

Pretty tough to split these two at the moment, but I have no doubt that one of them will win. I am leading towards Hugo because I think the film's beautiful story and respect for silent cinema will win over voters. Scorsese could also take out Best Director, which gives it the jump over The Descendants. I think Moneyball is the only other lock for a Best Picture nomination from this group. I personally don't think War Horse is good enough (nor The Help) and with the swift rise by The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, it is possible that The Ides of March (which was an outsider before these nominations) could be left out. 



Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy


50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight In Paris
My Week With Marilyn


Predicted Winner: The Artist
Alternative Choice: Midnight in Paris

The Artist will win this, but I think that Midnight in Paris has a Best Picture slot locked up (especially with Woody Allen receiving a DGA nomination). None of the other nominees have much of a chance, though I am yet to see 50/50 or Marilyn, the former I believe to be quite good. Bridesmaids received both PGA and WGA nominations, which suggests that it has a shot at Best Picture. This would be a HUGE mistake.



Best Actor - Drama

George Clooney – The Descendants
Michael Fassbender – Shame
Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar
Ryan Gosling – The Ides of March
Brad Pitt – Moneyball


Predicted Winner: George Clooney (The Descendants)
Alternative Choice: Michael Fassbender (Shame)

I'm not certain about this one, but Clooney's work in The Descendants is his best work to date. I know we all said that about Up in the Air and Michael Clayton before that, but he really is excellent. I am yet to see Fassbender and Shame but word is that his performance is astonishing (and certainly bold). Will the film be too controversial for the Globes? Might he be recognised at the Academy Awards? I think he has more of a chance there. Pitt was great in Moneyball, and I think they will be joined on Oscar day by Dujardin (who should take out Best Actor: Musical and Comedy) and Michael Shannon for Take Shelter (going out on a limb). 



Best Actress - Drama

Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis - The Help
Rooney Mara - The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton - We Need To Talk About Kevin


Predicted Winner: Viola Davis (The Help)
Alternative Choice: Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)


This is a really interesting category, but could also be a very boring one. Meryl Streep is the obvious favourite, but her film is an awful mess, which could prove to be a hurdle she can't surmount. Viola Davis' film, The Help, might receive a Best Picture nomination, and I just have a feeling she will win over the sympathies of voters with her performance (which is very good). The winner should be Tilda Swinton, who is nothing short of mesmerising in the unforgivably overlooked We Need to Talk About Kevin, but I have my doubts about this. After all, she won an Oscar a couple of years ago. Rooney Mara's role commitment in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo is impressive and she is sensational. Dragon Tattoo might be the only film with an actress in contention to be nominated for Best Picture (and that's looking more likely every day) so that can't hurt her chances. I'm not saying I think she will win here, but I have a hunch she will take Close's position in the Best Actress Oscar category. Nobbs has not had a strong Box Office and Close's work, for me, wasn't even the best performance in the film.

Best Actor - Musical or Comedy

Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Brendan Gleeson - The Guard
Joseph Gordon-Levitt - 50/50
Ryan Gosling - Crazy, Stupid, Love
Owen Wilson - Midnight in Paris

Predicted Winner: Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Alternative Choice: Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50)

Dujardin will win this I'm pretty sure. The alternative choice was a toss up between Gleeson for The Guard, a very funny film with a memorable performance from the usual supporting man, and Gordon-Levitt, who is a great young actor, who I believe gives one of his career best performances in 50/50. This is also a strong category, because I really liked Owen Wilson's work in Midnight in Paris. I was surprised by Gosling's nomination here - but let's be honest, he made everything look cool in CSL. 

Best Actress - Musical or Comedy

Jodie Foster - Carnage
Kate Winslet - Carnage
Charlize Theron - Young Adult
Kristen Wiig - Bridesmaids
Michelle Williams - My Week With Marilyn

Predicted Winner: Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
Alternative Choice: Charlize Theron (Young Adult)

The only performance from this lot I have seen so far is Kristen Wiig's in Bridesmaids. Williams and Theron are being widely praised for their work but Michelle Williams looks to be the only lock for a Best Actress nomination, so I'll go with her.

Best Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh - My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks - Drive
Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Viggo Mortensen − A Dangerous Method
Christopher Plummer - Beginners

Predicted Winner: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Alternative Choice: Albert Brooks (Drive)


I feel like this is a two horse race: Plummer and Brooks. Plummer is the favourite, and he is great in Beginners. Kenneth Branagh is also in contention. I feel that there are several snubs here. John Hawkes for Martha Marcy May Marlene is one notable exclusion.

Best Supporting Actress

Berenice Bejo - The Artist
Jessica Chastain - The Help
Octavia Spencer - The Help
Shailene Woodley - The Descendants
Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs

My Prediction: Jessica Chastain (The Help)
Alternative Choice: Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)

As much as I have loved Jessica Chastain this year - she was amazing in Take Shelter - my favourite supporting performance is Shailene Woodley's in The Descendants and I'd be happy to see either of them win. This category is pretty open. I'm not sure how Berenice Bejo features in this mix, but I do know that Janet McTeer is the best feature about Albert Nobbs. I have a feeling it will go to Chastain, however.

Best Screenplay

Midnight in Paris
The Ides of March
The Artist
The Descendants
Moneyball

My Prediction: The Artist
Alternative Choice: The Descendants or Midnight in Paris

I honestly have no idea with the category. It's a mix of original and adapted screenplays. If The Artist sweeps, then it will take this out. The Best Adapted Screenplay is headed by The Descendants and Moneyball, though I am surprised by Hugo's absence here. I think The Descendants is the favourite - so it has a chance.

Best Animated Film

The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Cars 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

My Prediction: Rango
Alternative Choice: Tintin

It's gotta be Rango. I thoroughly enjoyed Tintin, but the others have no chance.

Best Foreign Language Film

A Separation (Iran)
The Flowers of War (China)
The Kid with the Bike (Belgium)
In the Land of Blood and Honey
The Skin I Live In (Spain)

My Prediction: A Separation
Alternative Choice: The Skin I Live In

I have only seen two of the nominees, and they were both amazing. A Separation is in a different league, and if it doesn't win, I want to see the film that does. Desperately.

Best Original Score

Ludovic BourceThe Artist
Abel KorzeniowskiW.E
Trent Reznor and Atticus RossThe Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Howard ShoreHugo
John WilliamsWar Horse

My Prediction: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)
Alternative Choice: Howard Shore (Hugo)

This is a totally personal choice. I love the Reznor/Ross soundtrack, and I am totally against Williams this year. I think the alternatives are Shore and Bource.


So there you have it. What are your thoughts on these selections? Who would you pick? The Golden Globes and the Guilds are usually the best guide of the Oscars - so it shall be interesting to see who is victorious.

3 comments:

  1. I am hoping for a JGL win in the Best Actor Comedy, and it can be possible, but Dujardin is most likely to get it.
    As for Best Actor Drama, as much as I want to, Fassbender will not get it- you are right, he has a lot more chances for the Oscars!
    Best Actress- I think it's between Viola Davis and Tilda Swinton, in my opinion; Meryl Streep hasn't gotten too many awards until now!
    I really don't think Hugo will win, it has lost his momentum- it's going to be either The Help or The Descendants

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  2. The category that I will be watching the most closely is best supporting actress. Chastain has been getting most of the critics awards (with Woodley and Bejo picking up some too), but her co-star Octavia Spencer has been the presumed front-runner for most of the season and won the BFCA. I think the Globes will tell us quite a bit about which of the two The Help stars has the momentum to go all the way.

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  3. @ Aziza - Yeah, I think JGL has a chance (even though I haven't seen the film :-p) but I think Dujardin will win. Meryl shouldn't win. I honestly think that she owes a lot to her make-up team, and the film has been so poorly received, that I her chances might be hurt. Tilda Swinton is probably sitting behind Viola Davis and Meryl, but I hope she wins. She's my pick, anyway. Hugo might not win Best Drama, but it will still be in the Oscar mix.

    @ NeverTooEarlyMP - This is also one of my favourite categories. My pick would be either Chastain or Woodley, but I also hope that Carey Mulligan gets a nomination (I have a bit of a crush haha). I am pretty certain that Bejo and Spencer will be amongst the nominees, but Vanessa Redgrave has fallen out of favour (McCarthy too), so it has become pretty open.

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