Saturday, February 18, 2012

Awards Watch: Predicted Winners at the 84th Academy Awards

With the 84th Academy Awards a little over a week away, I thought I would get my picks in. Right now access to my blog is in dire straights so I wanted to justify throwing links everyone's way. The rules of these predictions are simple:

Predicted Winner is who I think will win.

Alternative Choice also has a strong chance and win would not surprise.

Dark Horse isn't one of the favourites, but the one that could pull off an upset.

Should Win is who I would vote for given the opportunity.

I was going to add in a Should'a Been There, but there has been plenty of talk about who missed out already. I have not included my predictions in the shorts categories, because I honestly could not develop an opinion on them. Really, having not seen any of the nominees for Best Documentary Feature, I have no opinion on that category either. But, regardless, here are my predictions for 21 of the categories.



Best Picture

Predicted Winner: The Artist
Alternative Choice: Hugo
Dark Horse: The Tree of Life
Should Win: The Tree of Life

Best Director

Predicted Winner: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Alternative Choice: Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
Dark Horse: Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Should Win: Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Predicted Winner: Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Alternative Choice: George Clooney (The Descendants)
Dark Horse: Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Should Win: Jean Dujardin (The Artist)

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Predicted Winner: Viola Davis (The Help)
Alternative Choice: Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Dark Horse: Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)
Should Win: Rooney Mara (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Predicted Winner: Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Alternative Choice: Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
Dark Horse: Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
Should Win: Berenice Bejo (The Artist)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Predicted Winner: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Alternative Choice: Kenneth Branagh (My Week With Marilyn)
Dark Horse: Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Should Win: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)

Will all of these above categories follow the suit of the awards ceremonies preceding them? I think so. There will be few surprises here. Wins for Dujardin and Viola Davis are no longer surprises. Much more interesting than Streep and Clooney, but you never know. Clooney was excellent. He still could win. I get a bit bold in the screenplay categories - predicting who I think are the deserved winners, and not sticking to the trends. Documentary Feature and Foreign Language Film could go anywhere (though I am very confident on the latter) and it is very likely the technical awards will be split between The Artist and Hugo. Who is going to win Best Editing? I think that is a tough one. The rest of my predictions are after the jump:

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Winner: Asghar Farhadi (A Separation)
Alternative Choice: Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
Dark Horse: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Should Win: Asghar Farhadi (A Separation)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Winner: Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian (Moneyball)
Alternative Choice: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (The Descendants)
Dark Horse: Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughn (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
Should Win: Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian (Moneyball)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Winner: Rango
Alternative Choice: NONE
Dark Horse: Chico and Rita or A Cat in Paris
Should Win: Rango

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Winner: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Winner: A Separation

Best Cinematography

Predicted Winner: Emmanuel Lubezki (The Tree of Life)
Alternative Choice: Guillaume Schiffman (The Artist)
Dark Horse: Robert Richardson (Hugo)
Should Win: Emmanual Lubezki (The Tree of Life)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Winner: 
Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Alternative Choice: Thelma Schoonmaker (Hugo)
Dark Horse: Christopher Tellefsen (Moneyball)
Should Win: Kirk Baxter and Angus Hall (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)

Best Original Score

Predicted Winner: Ludovic Bource (The Artist)
Alternative Choice: Howard Shore (Hugo)
Dark Horse: Alberto Iglesias (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
Should Win: Ludovic Bource (The Artist)

Best Art Direction

Predicted Winner: Hugo
Alternative Choice: The Artist
Dark Horse: Midnight in Paris
Should Win: Hugo

Best Costume Design

Predicted Winner: Hugo
Alternative Choice: The Artist
Dark Horse: Anonymous
Should Win: Hugo

Best Makeup

Predicted Winner: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Alternative Choice: 
The Iron Lady
Dark Horse: NONE
Should Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Winner: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Alternative Choice: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Dark Horse: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Best Original Song

Predicted Winner: "Man or Muppet" from The Muppets

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Winner: Hugo
Alternative Choice: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Dark Horse: War Horse
Should Win: Hugo

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Winner: War Horse
Alternative Choice: Hugo
Dark Horse: Drive
Should Win: Drive


What are your thoughts on these selections? Last year I got 18 correct, and this year I think I can once again hit around 16-18.

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